Summary
In line with the terms of reference of the Third-Party Monitoring Team, this second public report is intended to provide an overall assessment of developments in the implementation of the Agreements between the Government of the Philippines (GPH) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, and primarily of the implementation of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro (FAB) and its Annexes.
2014 saw several key milestones in the peace process, including in particular the signature of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) on 27 March, the joint submission of the draft of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) to Congress on 10 September, and the launching immediately thereafter of the extensive Congressional consultations and deliberations on the BBL.
Based on our review of the draft BBL, it would appear that the draft fully respects the terms of the CAB (with one trivial exception), and indeed clarifies a number of issues – addressing certain areas which had not been so clearly expressed in the CAB (for example in relation to consonance with the Constitution, to the general supervision of the President, to human rights, or to the Bangsamoro Police being clearly part of the PNP) – and adding some new elements which the Parties believed could improve on the arrangements proposed in the CAB (for example the establishment of the office of the Wali, or the provision for creating an office or ministry for indigenous peoples within the Bangsamoro Government).
In addition to these major events, work has continued on all the other dimensions of the agreements :
– initial progress has been made in the normalisation track, with the establishment of the three major normalisation bodies– the Joint Normalisation Committee (JNC), the Transitional Justice and Reconciliation Committee (TJRC), and most recently the Independent Decommissioning Board (IDB)– and with the submission in April of the report of the Independent Commission on Policing (ICP). This key element of the peace process is difficult and sensitive, and has been carried forward more slowly than expected.
– preparations continue for the first ceremonial turnover of crew-served weapons and high-powered firearms by the BIAF to the IDB – the first of four phases of decommissioning of MILF forces – and it is to be hoped that this will be carried forward without further serious delay;
– regarding socio-economic development, a substantial range of activities under the Sajahatra Bangsamoro program have been carried out (though progress has been slower than initially expected, and program implementation has been extended). In a longerterm perspective, a detailed Bangsamoro Development Plan was presented to the President, to the MILF and to the international community in November, already leading to a pledge of substantial development funding from the Government to allow the Bangsamoro to begin the process of catching up with the rest of the country;
– preparations for the transition from ARMM to BTA have also been carried forward, for example with respect to initial preparations for the plebiscite, and with the establishment of a coordination team for the transition bringing together GPH, ARMM and the MILF. In addition, the MILF have established the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), marking a significant transition from armed struggle to full engagement with the political process.
Against that background, we believe that considerable progress was achieved in 2014 – whether in the process as a whole, in the normalisation track, or in relation to socio-economic development planning.
Of course progress was not as rapid as either Party would have wished, and delays have been encountered in a number of areas – with respect to the completion of the draft BBL, to certain aspects of the normalisation track, or to the implementation of socio-economic programs (particularly in relation to infrastructure). It has always been clear that 45 years of armed conflict can not be ended quickly or easily. The devil will always be in the details, and the best guarantee of success will always be the strongest underlying commitment to peace by both Parties, amply demonstrated during 2014.
The biggest test of this commitment, certainly since the Framework Agreement was signed in October 2012, came with the tragic events of 25 January at Mamasapano. As noted above, it would be inappropriate to make any substantive comment on these events before the facts of the matter have been satisfactorily established, including through the several investigations now being carried out – by the Government and the PNP Board of Inquiry, by the MILF, and by the International Monitoring Team.
Looking forward, multiple challenges had already existed, for example with regard to :
– the timely adoption of the BBL (in a form compliant with the agreements and not subject to major challenges in the Supreme Court);
– the successful conduct of the plebiscite to determine the effectivity and geographic coverage of the Bangsamoro (which will call for a massive communications effort by both Parties);
– ensuring a smooth transition from ARMM to BTA, and addressing the challenges arising from the much shorter-than-expected transition period now foreseen before the regular elections in May 2016;
– moving forward with comprehensive and timely efforts in relation to all dimensions of normalisation, as contained in the matrix attached to the Annex on Normalization.
– ensuring the necessary support for socio-economic development, from the Government and the international community, in order to permit “catch-up” (and ensuring rapid and effective delivery, drawing on the lessons from the past);
– and achieving the greatest possible sense of inclusivity, among all the inhabitants of the Bangsamoro, whether Muslim, Lumad or Christian, MILF or MNLF, or from mainland or island communities.
And now, since 25 January, most of these pre-existing challenges will become even more acute. Emotions run high, and confidence in the process (on both sides) has taken a knock. Both houses of Congress have suspended action on the draft Bangsamoro Basic Law until investigations have clarified the events of that day. This will certainly have an impact on the time-table for the remaining stages of the process, and may also colour the final discussions on the BBL in Congress, as well as influencing the climate of opinion in the run-up to the plebiscite. After a previous incident, in October 2011 in Al Barka, Basilan, the peace panels of both parties continued to meet while investigations were on-going; however the fact that the draft BBL has been filed in Congress has opened the entire process to public and sometimes emotional debate.
But while the challenges are great, the prizes to be gained are even greater. There is a real prospect that the peace process will allow the region to achieve the full potential offered by its human and natural resources and to contribute more effectively to the prosperity and security of the nation as a whole, and that the vision of autonomy set out in the 1987 Constitution will be implemented in a manner consistent with the aspirations of the Bangsamoro people while respecting the rights of all of the region’s inhabitants.
The best guarantees of success are the continuing commitment to peace of both Parties at the highest level, the massive engagement of Congress and the public in deliberating on the BBL, and the underlying hopes of the people of Mindanao for a peaceful and prosperous future for their children.